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Tractorholic
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Has anyone been watching the DOW and S&P500 ? They say they passed the 2007 peak. Are we in for another crash ?
 

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The bubble is propped up on low interest rates and government spending which is putting us in extreme national debt.

The cyber attacks by the Chinese, that the news is talking about today, is aimed at our power grid. Knock out the power, our economy takes a big hit and the stock market will drop. If the meteroite that hit Russia had hit a populated area of the US the ecomomy and the Dow would have dropped.

There are just too many ways for the Dow to be knocked down. I think that the Dow is manipulated by the heads of major institutions for their profit. The Dow is a rigged game. They sell high, cause it to drop, buy low, then they build it up and sell off again.

I prefer investing in real objects such as land, tools, orchards, gardens, and knowledge.
 

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Tractorholic
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Hate to be really cynical, but I think Wall Street at this point exists to fleece the ordinary investor. If nothing else, we are still struggling with more expensive power and transportation costs. Companies appear to be making more money than ever, yet most of that money seems to end up with the "inner circle" of high ranking executives. Of course, with the government printing money like mad, inflation may make everything 'cheaper' by making our money worthless.

Ray Stevens made a song:

 

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Tractorholic
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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Great video Howard :thumbs: I'm not much an investor at at all , heck I never thought the dow would have gone over 2000 20+years ago lol . Most companies don't have regular pension plans and just offer 401k instead . Guess it's kind of scary to think that you work all you life and then when you go to retire most of the money could be GONE!
 

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One of the things to point out is that under earlier administrations the Banks and Wall ST were allowed a lot more freedom. This gave us the 87 and 2007 crashes. The wars in Iraq and Afganistan cost the United States huge amounts in lives and money. We are going to be paying for these for many years to come.

This and many other factors are contributing to our current and future financial insability.
 

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Tractorholic
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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
So if the stock market stays up do you think people will feel richer and spend more , like on tractors and run the prices higher ?
 
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If I express opinions about wall street, big banks and the federal reserve, would they be considered political?

Mike
As long as the discussion wouldn't get heated than there is no issues. Problem is most threads in regards to politics and / or religion usually get heated and have to be closed.
 

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We're figuring, yup, it'll pop. Get back to basics, fill the cold room, use the grid if you have to but hook up a wood stove, and if you can, learn about and apply solar. Can't really see it being as big as the "great depression", but it'll sure hurt us little guys long before the big guys squeal!
 

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Bush Hog Addict
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To me this is one of the most confusing times I have seen in my life. Our industry has been severely damaged by the housing crash, all the people we talk to says it will slowly get better but never be as good as it was (the building craze of the late 90's and early-mid 2000's).

I sold some of my stock after the election in my retirement because I felt with the european market was in big trouble and the new additional costs the US companies were going to take in health cost, regulations, etc ......along with an already fairly stagnant economy would make you think it could not hold up. If all these factors did hit the market, I wanted to be able to have some money on hand that in an emergency I could get. (we are not talking big money so don;t get excited)

What I am seeing and have seen for over a year, is "have's and have not's"........some of my guys business's are doing pretty well while others right down the street are suffering- I am seeing those who were not heavy in debt and willing to change their business stategy doing okay (if in the right location, etc). I do see more building in some areas.....but housing being built is sporadic.....some areas have sold the "good" and "wanted" houses and now rebuilding.....others still selling off old inventory....rates are low so people who can are trying to take advantage of the low rates while they can. In the south, I think the days of the big expensive houses are numbered.....there will always be some built, but my gut feeling is this next generation is going to what more than an expensive house payment to chase. Especially if we see interest rates above 5-7%. All this building of houses and commercial buildings along with the increased auto sales is good but not great.

So .....seeing an increase in housing and some commercial building is plus....but I know we are hearing many of the mid size companies are figuring the new health care bill is going to cost them x amount of dollars.....all I have talked to say they have no margins now...so they will either have to increase their prices and/or lay off some people.....probably a combination of both. That means higher prices and possibly more people out of jobs. IF this is the case....is it enough to slow the economy back down??......So how is this going to affect us in the end of 2013 and into 2014??

To me the increase in sales in the auto industry was a no brainer.....we all can not drive 10-12 year old cars with 300,000 . Eventually people were going to start buying again.....out of neccessity more than just being tired of their current model. I own 5 cars....all have 100,000 plus.....eventually we will replace them.....just not anytime soon unless we have to.

the last 4 years have put probably put 40-50% of my customers and competitors out of the business.....the rest are probably at 50% capacity and truthfully for the current market and the projected market we are probably closer to the right ratio for supply and demand.

Whether we ever get back to our original sizes will be determined by the market and how well we respond to it. I do think many of the business out there today are leaner and meaner, if the market does come back the opportunity to thrive and do well is there.

In the mid 80's my industry had a freeze, it literally changed the buying habits and growing processes of the industry. I keep telling my customers something big like that is happening now.....not sure what it is....but with this type of turmoil in the business cycle, something is always effected. We just got to figure out what that is and make sure we are on board to ride the next wave.

Some economist are saying 2014 is going to be good......others are saying just the opposite.......sure wish I had genie in a bottle right now.

I could sleep alot better with just a positive outlook with a good feeling it was going to continue to move forward at what ever pace it would be.....for now....I am not so sure.

I will say all the tradeshows I displayed at this winter were well attended and people were more positive. I hope and pray that is a good sign.

Sorry I am a long winded, son of a preacher man, salesman........ :D this and 99cents will get you a coffee that is about all it is worth :D
 
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